It was such a privilege to be part of a NEMOA panel discussion with Donna Belardi (Chairman & CEO, Belardi Wong), Brian Rainey (CEO, Path2Response), Scott Carl (Principal, Tricision) and Dana Springfield (President, Dover Saddlery). I made two new friends and learned a few things in the process. Our topic was, “The Attribution Puzzle: Why Measuring Direct Marketing is Harder than Ever.” It could not have been more timely as marketing attribution challenges seemed to be a theme in other presentations.

We tackled some big questions head-on—Do we think marketers are getting it right today? What is the biggest obstacle to proper measurement? What is the overlap between print and digital? Is it really as big as some may feel? What steps can marketers take to ensure they are making good decisions for their brand?

“The answer isn’t a simple yes-or-no decision. It’s more about the degree and timing as to which levers you use, and when.”

Some takeaways from the conversation:

• The path of purchase is difficult to measure. There can be multiple marketing drivers, over time, that lead to a single ultimate purchase outcome.

• There is no industry standard for how to measure attribution. In fact, many are opposed to that term, or picking a “winner” and subjective fractional allocation.

• There are many “black box” technologies that are being used to measure marketing effectiveness that may be built upon bad assumptions.

• Marketers need to ask the right questions and understand how direct mail response is being treated.

• People are challenged to do the same with less marketing spend. Direct mail is often the biggest cost line in the budget and can be the first to be cut. The marketer’s tool box needs to contain a mix of methods. The answer isn’t a simple yes-or-no decision. It’s more about the degree and timing as to which levers you use, and when.

• Testing is not a 1x event. The world is changing. What didn’t work in the past, may work now. Re-testing is a critical part of making good decisions.

• When analyzing results, it is important to look at both the short and long term impact of your strategies. Scott Carl showed an example of the long term impact of holding out just one catalog from a cohort. The impact of not receiving one catalog extended past the marketer defined response period. The group was less engaged as time passed.

• The overlap between your marketing mix may not be as big as you think. What percentage of your customers are email opt in? Many aren’t measuring this metric at all. They measure opt out rate for an email campaign and the number of email addresses being added to their ESP. However, customers can supply multiple email addresses over time which makes it more important to understand the sheer number of people you can contact by this method. If your email opt-in rate for new buyers is only 35%, that leaves big portions of customers that you cannot speak to digitally. A strategy that includes direct mail is needed to cultivate this group.

• Successful marketers keep an eye on their KPIs regularly. They set weekly goals and are quick to adjust course if they are not making those goals. Top KPIs besides orders/dollars and AOV by segment include: number of new buyers acquired, number re-activated, 12 month buyer file count, % of new buyers who are email opt in (not just email addresses – the actual percentage of people you can talk to), Near Term Value.

• As with your health, get a second and even third opinion before making major changes to your marketing strategy! External voices can provide a different perspective. Stay current by reading the latest thought leader POVs.

The pursuit of the perfect attribution methodology is really just striving for marketing budget optimization. Test and measure often, challenge assumptions, and seek trusted partners to help interpret the story behind the numbers. If you’re doing that, you’re one step ahead of many. Keep asking the right questions—and if we can help you find the answers, we’re always here.